In what could be a wild and wet New England XC Championship in Thetford VT on Saturday the top six teams and top 25 runners from five NE states will be vying for the title of kingpins and queenpins of the region. Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont (all but Massachusetts, which is holding its state qualifier meets the same day before next weekend's championship) will be taking their paces on a course familiar to at least a few of the non-VT teams such as Bishop Guertin and Coe Brown and the New Milford and Glastonbury girls who ran there at the big Woods Trail invite on October 9th. Thirty-five days later, the stakes are a little bigger.
The championship will be flashing lots of speed. Four guys from CT's Open championship posted 190+ speed ratings, and the girls include champs from ME, RI and CT who ran above the 140 mark. The team competition should be very close, especially on the boys' side where any one of seven teams could reasonably be seen as having solid shots at the title if they have a good day. How the weather and course conditions will affect the action is anyone's guess.
Two years ago at NE-XC at Wickham Park CT, Conard's Gavin Sherry and La Salle Academy were the champs on the boys' side (both are back for title defenses) and Falmouth's Sofie Matson (C21) and Champlain Valley won for the girls.
Here's a few guesses based on the speed-rated data. Again, the combination of speed ratings and 1-5 split marks for teams are by far the best and most accurate method for comparing teams that run on widely varying courses at different distances under a wide range of conditions. Other XC prognosticators prefer to stick with dart throws and dice rolls while peddling brute 5K times for their pronouncements, which I guess is another way to go, but here we deal with the real and right stuff, the SRs. Note that all of the numbers used here come from the teams' championship meets. If a team or runner had a bad day or were not at 100% for whatever reason, the numbers may not fully represent their full value. They thus can use the NE XC meet to show what they've really got.
The full lineups for all of the states appear on following pages and can be accessed also from the link table at bottom. Cheers to all!
Boys Team Scene
No, 2019 NE-XC runner-up Bishop Hendricken does not view itself as a powerhouse this year (at least from what I heard from them at the Manhattan invite), but the Hawks still have the best ratings of any team off of their win at the RIIL last weekend. In addition to having the highest speed rating among the 30 teams, they also have a really tight 1-5 compression at the top of 30 seconds, which is bested only by the truly insane 15 seconds posted by South Burlington toward the back of the teams here. State champs Ridgefield (CT), Bishop Guertin (NH), and U-32 (VT) all have speed ratings and 1-5 splits close enough to Bishop Hendricken to know they have a good shot at the title. Coe Brown definitely has the speed to compete but will need to pull its back end up a bit, and Xavier and Hall have a little more work to do but are also strongly in the hunt.
Boys Top 10 Teams by Speed Ratings + 1-5 Split
| Team | State | Speed Rating | 1-5 Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Hendricken | RI | 172 | 0.30 |
| Ridgefield | CT | 170 | 0.39 |
| Bishop Guertin | NH | 168 | 0.45 |
| U-32 | VT | 170 | 1:01 |
| Coe Brown | NH | 170 | 1:46 |
| Xavier | CT | 167 | 1:10 |
| Hall | CT | 166 | 0.55 |
| Cumberland | RI | 165 | 1.35 |
| Concord | NH | 163 | 1.37 |
| Staples | CT | 160 | 0.52 |
Girls Team Scene
As on the boys' side, frontrunner New Milford not only has a big speed rating but also a nice enough 1-5 split. The Green Wave also has strong potential to push even higher since Claire Daniels was returning from a bout with mono at CT's Open and may be on the way back to her earlier 130 SR while winning at Woods Trail. North Kingstown, Glastonbury, and La Salle are all within range for an upset here though, and East Greenwich actually comes in with the highest SR from the state championship meets but likely has just too huge a 1-5 split (too much of a gap from Reese Fahys to 5th spot) to contend in a meet with 30 teams.
Girls Top 10 Teams by Speed Ratings + 1-5 Split
| Team | State | Speed Rating | 1-5 Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Milford | CT | 108 | 1:37 |
| North Kingstown | RI | 104 | 1:47 |
| Glastonbury | CT | 103 | 1:59 |
| La Salle | RI | 103 | 1:47 |
| East Greenwich | RI | 109 | 3:06 |
| Dover | NH | 101 | 1:33 |
| Bonny Eagle | ME | 101 | 2:30 |
| Oyster River | NH | 98 | 1:40 |
| Keane | NH | 97 | 1:08 |
| Concord | NH | 98 | 1:53 |
Boys Individual Scene
Reigning champ and 2021 Ocean State winner Gavin Sherry of Conard is back to defend his 2019 NE-XC title, and he's got his back covered (maybe his front, you never know) as twin brother Callum comes in as the second favorite. Manchester's Aidan Puffer and Newington's Michael Bohlke will be in the chase, and among non-CT runners, NH champ Aidan Cox of Coe Brown should also be among the leaders.
Boys Top 10+ Runners by Speed Ratings
| Runner | Team | State | Speed Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sherry | Conard | CT | 195 |
| Callum Sherry | Conard | CT | 193 |
| Aidan Puffer | Manchester | CT | 192 |
| Michael Bohlke | Newington | CT | 190 |
| Aidan Cox | Coe Brown | NH | 189 |
| Devon Kipyego | St. Raphael | RI | 185 |
| Abbott Valentine | Hampden Academy | ME | 185 |
| Daniel McCarthy | Bangor | ME | 184 |
| Luke Anthony | East Lyme | CT | 184 |
| Cooper Michaud | Classical | RI | 182 |
| Henry Dennen | Cumberland | RI | 182 |
| Eamon Burke | Xavier | CT | 182 |
| Antonio Capalbo | South Kingstown | RI | 182 |
Girls Individual Scene
This appears to come down to a race between the champs from ME, RI, and CT, who all flash SR's above the 140 mark. Reese Fahys of East Greenwich took 2nd in the huge Great American Race of Champions, Ruth White of Orono is small but runs big in an undefeated season in ME, and Somers' Rachel St. Germain is also undefeated in a season that includes a win in the Wickham Park invite.
Girls Top 10 Runners by Speed Ratings
| Runner | Team | State | Speed Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth White | Orono | ME | 145 |
| Reese Fahys | East Greenwich | RI | 143 |
| Rachel St. Germain | Somers | CT | 140 |
| Sophia Gorriaran | Moses Brown | RI | 132 |
| Rylee Shunney | East Greenwich | RI | 131 |
| Caroline Cummings | La Salle | RI | 130 |
| Thea Crowley | George Steven | ME | 129 |
| Brianna Malone | Portsmouth Christian | NH | 128 |
| Delaney Hesler | Bonny Eagle | ME | 127 |
| Ava Thurston | Harwood | VT | 127 |
State Team Snapshots | |
|---|---|
CT Boys | CT Girls |
ME Boys | ME Girls |
NH Boys | NH Girls |
RI Boys | RI Girls |
VT Boys | VT Girls |