The CIAC Open is upon us again at Wickham Park on Friday, November 1st, and we've pulled together a post Halloween treat to help in trying to figure out what may happen in the big race.
What is known is that four runners ranked highly in the national rankings will be on the lead. Pomperaug's Kate Wiser will almost certainly be running by herself as she looks to propel herself up among the top 10 in the nation from her current position just off the edge. Conard's Gavin Sherry, Xavier's Robbie Cozean, and Manchester's Aidan Puffer are much more likely to be having a chummy time together as they vie to replace last year's winner Eli Nahom as the champ.
All of the data in the article are from the Division races, so for some of those top teams like Tolland and Xavier who did not run in the LL slugfest that placed 13 of the 24 teams at the Open, the numbers may not be a complete indicator of what they can do under more competitive conditions. Both speed ratings and compression numbers are shown for the qualifying teams in the Division races.
The higher the speed rating number the better, and the teams are sorted on that figure. However, it is generally much better to have a low compression number, meaning your 1st to 5th runners are packed fairly well together. Tolland's boys' extremely low score of 16 in the M race was very good and bodes well for the team's prospects. The Manchester boys on the other hand have a gigantic 89 compression number behind Aidan Puffer, however for a team likely to finish in the lower half of the results after a 13th place in the LL race, having a big compression number will actually benefit the Indians as their top place will get them off to a very nice start.
Compression numbers tend to be much larger on the girls' side than on the boys', but top rated LL winner Hall along with Wilton and East Lyme have pack teams with numbers at 21 or less. Pomperaug's 117 (about 6 minutes between 1 and 5 runners) number looks very huge, but when you consider how high up Kate Wiser is, it's okay. In fact, if Kate pushes that number up higher with a stupendous run at the Open, I'm guessing that her coach will be extremely happy.
Catch all the action on Friday, and if you can't be there, watch it afterwards in the MileSplit archive treasury.
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